Estun (002747): Short-term performance pressures focus on marginal inflection points

Estun (002747): Short-term performance pressures focus on marginal inflection points

2019Q1 results continue to be under pressure.

The company achieved revenue of 14 in 2018.

610,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

72%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

9%.

In Q1 2019, the company’s revenue was 3.

2.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6.

21%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

19 trillion, the same increase of 4.

78%; net profit after deduction is 0.

12 ‰, an average of 18 in ten years.

85%.

Except for the electro-hydraulic servo, the main business revenue in 2018 maintained a high growth rate.

In 2018, the company’s motion control and AC servo system products grew by more than 50%; industrial robots and intelligent manufacturing systems business grew by 50%.

28%.

The growth rate of profits has dropped sharply, and the pressure mainly comes from two aspects: first, the weak demand for external and general equipment industries; and second, the increase in internal costs.

The gradual growth rate of industrial enterprises’ profit maximization is still within the subdivision range opened since February 2017, and the gradual growth growth rate in the first two months of 2019 has gradually replaced 14%.

Earnings expectations are revised down, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment in domestic manufacturing continues to grow, replacing 3 in 3 months.

67%.

The general equipment is under pressure as a whole. In Q1 2019, the output of domestic industrial robots is reduced by 11.

70%.

In addition to industry pressure, rising internal expenses are the main factor affecting net profit.

The total company management and R & D expense ratio increased by 1 in 2018.

8%, mainly due to the introduction of excellent external research and development teams; financial expense ratio increased by 1.

3%, mainly because the company’s short-term loan surplus doubled to 8.

87 trillion, corresponding to 0.

43 trillion financial costs.

Short-term borrowings continued to increase to 10 at the end of the first quarter.

0.6 million yuan, interest rate expenditure is still under pressure.

From the quarterly data, look at positive marginal changes.

1. The gross profit margin in Q1 2019 rebounded month-on-month, an increase of 3 from Q4 2018.

47%, high gross profit transportation control product volume; 2, advance income increased by 23 each year.

04%, expected Q1 final orders 南京桑拿网 show a pick-up from last year; 3, net operating cash flow of 0.

1.3 billion, which is close to the highest level of last year. The effective status of the targeted business in the early stage has been selected to ease the pressure on cash flow.

The medium and long-term industry logic remains unchanged.

The company’s business runs through the entire industrial robot industrial chain and continues to be optimistic about the potential of long-distance running.

Under the resonance of the increase in labor cost and the improvement of production efficiency, the logic of domestic manufacturing machines replacing humans has been maintained for a long time.In our opinion, as the domestic robot industry matures, the final point of competition is still product quality and technology.

Through continuous R & D and outbound mergers 成都桑拿网 and acquisitions, the company has basically realized the two-dimensional layout of “self-produced core components” + “cross-industry chain”. Product updates, cost control advantages gradually emerge, and the company is optimistic about its long-term growth.

Profit forecast and estimation: Net profit is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.

29, 1.

79, 2.

72 trillion, EPS is 0.

15, 0.

21, 0.

33 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE of 64.

2.46.

3, 30.

5 times.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: The sales of CNC metal forming machine tools are lower than expected; the local market of motion control products is less than expected; the manufacturing industry is in a slump, and competition in the system integration industry is intensifying.

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