Chuantou Energy (600674) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Slightly lower performance in line with expectations. Focus on investment signal decline
Core view EPS0 in the first three quarters of 2019.
60 yuan, in line with expectations; the company’s investment signal is obvious, the abundance of disposable funds is rising; the core assets of the Yalong River are highly scarce, and the progress of the midstream power plant’s commissioning has started a new round of growth.Good performance expands potential.
Maintain “Buy” rating and target price of 12.
First three quarter results 0.
60 yuan, in line with expectations.
3Q revenue fell by 3.
77% to 5.
7.8 billion, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 5.
08% to 26.
31 trillion; converted to EPS0.
60 yuan, the first three quarters accounted for 81 of our expectations.
5%, in line with expectations.
By quarter, Q3 realized net profit attributable to mothers at 14.
80,000 yuan, converted to EPS0.
34 yuan, an average of 8 in ten years.
Accumulation of Yalongjiang electricity price dragged down performance.
In the first three quarters, Yalongjiang’s online power supply increased by 2.
91% to 576.
800 million kWh, but affected by the electricity price accrual, Yalongjiang’s comprehensive electricity price fell 7.
5% to 0.
At 25 yuan / kWh, the long boots led to a decline in investment income from Yalongjiang Company2.
4.6 billion, dragging down the company’s performance.
Considering the quarterly electricity price fluctuations of the Yalong River Company in the first three quarters, the possibility of reversing the previous electricity price accrual will not be ruled out in the future.
In the first three quarters, the dry water supply caused the company’s holding power generation and grid connection 南宁桑拿 to be slightly inclined3.
44% to 23.
4.4 billion kilowatt-hours, market-based transactions led to a decline in the price of electricity sold by holding power plants3.
83% to 0.
20 yuan kilowatt-hours; Affected by the slight decrease in the total volume and price of the holding power plant, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 51.
6%, then gradually increased by about 1 unit, but still at a high level.
Signs of a decline in investment spending are obvious, and the adequacy of disposable funds has increased.
The Yalong River midstream unit continued to be built, with a total installed capacity of 4,500MW. The first unit was put into operation in 2021, which opened the start of Yazhong ‘s “one-bank seven-stage” production.
As a shareholder of Yalongjiang Company, the company needs to increase its 武汉夜网论坛 capital according to the distribution ratio. 2014?
In 2018, the company received a total of US $ 12.7 billion in dividends from Yalongjiang, with a total additional investment of 87 to Yalongjiang.
300 million US dollars, the additional investment accounted for 69% of the dividend, seriously violating the company’s dividend ability.
At present, the capital investment stage of Yazhong Power Station is nearing completion. In the first three quarters, the company paid Yalongjiang’s investment funds7.
68 ppm, a decrease of 3 from the same period last year.
At 8.4 billion, the company’s discretionary funds are increasing.
Risk factors: intensified fluctuations in electricity prices; higher-than-expected water supply; Yazhong unit’s investment and construction progress, and previously expected yield. Investment recommendations: We believe that fluctuations in electricity prices in individual quarters will not affect the company’s mid- and long-term value, and may be reversed later.
The Yalong River hydropower assets are of high quality. The company expects that at the end of many years, there is a margin of safety and it has fully reflected the expectations of the return of Yazhong Power Plant’s income, and gradually returned to suppress the lifting of promotion.
Under the global interest rate cut cycle, the company’s high-quality cash flow value has become more prominent, and it is estimated that it is expected to usher in expansion.
We maintain our 2019 EPS forecast of 0.
79 yuan, corresponding to PE is 13/13/12 times, maintain “Buy” rating, target price of 12.