Shanghai Airport (600009): Operating data performance in December was slightly under pressure but has been or has reflected pessimistic expectations
Company Status Shanghai Airport announced December 2019 production data: takeoffs and landings decreased by 1.
At 7%, the number of passenger explosions dropped by 0.
3%, the long-term growth of cargo mailing 7.
It is estimated that from January to December 2019, takeoffs and landings increased by two in two years.
4%, the number of passengers is increasing by 2 per year.
9%, long-term decline in cargo and mail 3.
Commented on the slight slight difference in overall takeoffs and landings and passenger explosions in December.
The company’s landings in December increased by -1 in ten years.
7%, lower than the 2% growth rate in November, lower than the same period in 20181.
4% growth rate; passenger tonnage growth -0.
3%, down from November 3.
The growth rate of 1% is lower than the same period in 20183.
3% growth rate.
In terms of different regions, the domestic airline passenger ratio remained unchanged in December (VS.
It increased by 4 in November.
2%), the explosion of outbound passengers (international routes + regional routes) decreased by 0 every year.
6% (relative to
November year-on-year growth of 2.
0%), we estimate that it is because there is a small holiday on New Year’s Day at the end of December 2018 but not in 2019, and the Spring Festival transportation has restrained the demand for travel.
Affected by regional routes, the number of outbound tourists in the fourth quarter exceeded the growth rate slightly distorted compared to the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, the number of landings was 0 twice.
3%, the number of passengers increased by 0.
6%, of which the outbound 佛山桑拿网 passenger explosion in the fourth quarter (international + regional) was 913.
40,000 person-times, rising by 0 every year.
3%, compared with 1 in the third quarter.
The quarterly growth rate of 6% changed slightly (the number of outbound passenger explosions in the third quarter was 9.97 million), mainly due to the decline in the volume of passenger transactions on regional routes in the fourth quarter was larger than in the third quarter (fourth quarter-24).
Third quarter -13.
We expect the company’s profit to increase by about 10% in the fourth quarter, compared with 15 in the third quarter.
The 7% growth rate is further forecasted, but we believe that the previous expected continuation may have reflected pessimistic expectations.
Consider the outbound passenger explosion in the fourth quarter decreased by about 8 from the third quarter.
4%, but the satellite hall has taxes and catering has a guaranteed income (about 80 million yuan in a quarter), so we expect the company’s fourth-quarter revenue to remain flat month-on-month, an increase of about 13%; the cost of the satellite hall will be reflected in the fourth quarter, we assumeIt grew 23% ahead of schedule, and net profit for the fourth quarter is expected to increase by about 10% to $ 1.2 billion.
Estimates suggest that the current company can continue to cope with the 24th of 2020.
5x P / E.
Maintain 2019/2020 profit forecast52.
71 ppm, with a profit forecast of 64 in 2021.
We believe that current expectations or expectations for the fourth quarter performance growth are still optimistic about the company’s natural impurities and tax-free long-term growth potential, maintaining an outperform industry rating and target price of 90 yuan, corresponding to 30/27 times P / 2020 2020/2021 E, corresponding to the current sustainable 22.
Risks Aviation demand is less than expected, tax-exempt income is less than expected, and the cost of the Satellite Agency exceeds expectations.